In preparation for the 2024 election, some may find themselves looking back at the electoral map and plotting out a path to 270 for their favorite candidate. However, glancing at the state of Nebraska, a distinctly blue dot appears in an otherwise red state. What does this mean, and how could it impact the distribution of electoral votes and, more importantly, the fate of the election? 

Every other state, except for Maine and Nebraska, abides by a “winner takes all” model when it comes to awarding electoral votes. What this means is that the candidate who wins the most congressional districts (each worth an electoral vote) wins the entire state and thus is awarded the full total of electoral votes equal to the number of congressional districts in the state, plus two to account for each senator. For example, Missouri has eight congressional districts, of which Biden won two in the 2020 election, but Trump won the other six, earning him the state of Missouri and its ten electoral votes. 

However, Nebraska and Maine split electoral votes. For example, in Nebraska in the 2020 election, while Trump won two congressional districts out of the three, he only received four electoral votes instead of the five that the state is worth, leaving the other electoral vote to go to Biden. 

So why does this matter? While it is true that this vote mattered relatively little in the 2020 election since Biden won by a healthy margin with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232, this year could be a different story.

For Biden, the road to 270 could be achieved just by winning Nebraska’s 2nd district and battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, in addition to safely blue states. 

However, if Nebraska chose to adopt a winner-take-all system, Trump would have an easier path to the White House. By winning every state that he carried in 2020 and flipping Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, this extra electoral vote would place Biden and Trump in a tie at two hundred and sixty-nine electoral votes each. 

This would send the election to the House of Representatives, and each state would get one vote. Under these circumstances, the Republican majority in the House would result in a victory for Trump. 

Currently, top Republican leaders are pushing for legislation in Nebraska to change the electoral voting system to this winner-take-all model in an attempt to optimize Trump’s path to victory. In an April 10th statement on X, Nebraska Governor Pillen commented on the issue. 

“I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to [move] it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it. I will sign [winner-take-all] into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk.”

While one electoral vote may not seem to be worth much, in a race this close, one vote could be the difference between presidents.